Event · resolves around 2026-11-05
Anthropic — event · Nov 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before November 5, 2026? | ManifoldPlay money | 4% | -15.7 pts | 11 | Likely noise |
| Will OpenAI release GPT-6.2 Astra within the next 36 hours? | ManifoldPlay money | 47% | +3.8 pts | 0 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.