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Currently 100% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 82/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Only Polymarket has this matched event in the current feed
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Magnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Well-supported — liquid, fresh, and steady. Treat this number as reliable.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by compound question.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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