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Currently 47% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 83/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Only Polymarket has this matched event in the current feed
This market will resolve according to the winner of the IEM Cologne 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for June 2nd - June 21st, 2026. If this tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, ESL (https://pro.eslgaming.com/). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/Intel_Extreme_Masters/2026/Cologne) may also be used.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Magnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Well-supported — liquid, fresh, and steady. Treat this number as reliable.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by subjective wording.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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